Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast

Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast

The global pandemic declared by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in 2020 caused a sharp fall in output production and changed consumption habits of the population. The goal of the article is to identify the impact of the pandemic on production and consumption in Mexico and the northern border, as well as to for...

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Main Author: Vásquez Galán, Belem Iliana
Format: Online
Language:spa
Published: Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas 2022
Online Access:https://dycsvictoria.uat.edu.mx/index.php/dycsv/article/view/150
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spelling oai:ojs2.dycsvictoria.uat.edu.mx:article-1502022-09-30T18:36:35Z Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast La pandemia: impacto económico y pronóstico de recuperación Vásquez Galán, Belem Iliana Producción Consumo Pandemia Covid-19 Production Consumption Pandemic Covid-19 The global pandemic declared by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in 2020 caused a sharp fall in output production and changed consumption habits of the population. The goal of the article is to identify the impact of the pandemic on production and consumption in Mexico and the northern border, as well as to forecast its economic recovery. With national data, the percentage change of economic activities and household spending between 2018 and 2021 were compared and an ARIMA model was estimated to forecast economic activity at the state level. The results indicate that the pandemic caused increases in trade retail, health services, transportation and entertainment, while consumers prioritized the purchase of basic products and online shopping. The impact of the pandemic in Mexico was deep but brief, so a rapid economic recovery is forecasted up to 2025, except for the border states of Coahuila and Tamaulipas. La pandemia mundial declarada por el virus SARS-CoV-2 en 2020 ocasionó una pronunciada caída de la producción y cambios en los hábitos de consumo de la población. El objetivo del artículo es identificar el impacto de la pandemia en la producción y el consumo en México y la frontera norte así como pronosticar su recuperación económica. Con datos nacionales, se compararon las variaciones porcentuales de las actividades económicas y del gasto de los hogares entre 2018 y 2021 y se estimó un modelo ARIMA para pronosticar la actividad económica a nivel estatal.  Los resultados indican que la pandemia ocasionó incrementos del comercio al menudeo, de los servicios de salud, de transportación y de esparcimiento, mientras que los consumidores priorizaron la compra de productos básicos y en línea. El impacto de la pandemia en México fue profundo pero breve, por lo que se pronostica una rápida recuperación económica hacia 2025, excepto por los estados fronterizos de Coahuila y Tamaulipas. Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas 2022-06-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://dycsvictoria.uat.edu.mx/index.php/dycsv/article/view/150 10.29059/rdycsv.v4i1.150 REVISTA DYCS VICTORIA; Vol. 4 N.° 1 (january - june 2022): Reflections on the social environment in times of pandemic; 17-29 REVISTA DYCS VICTORIA; Vol. 4 N.° 1 (enero - junio 2022): Reflexiones sobre el entorno social en tiempos de pandemia; 17-29 2683-1821 spa https://dycsvictoria.uat.edu.mx/index.php/dycsv/article/view/150/68 Derechos de autor 2022 Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0
institution REVISTA DYCS VICTORIA
collection OJS
language spa
format Online
author Vásquez Galán, Belem Iliana
spellingShingle Vásquez Galán, Belem Iliana
Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
author_facet Vásquez Galán, Belem Iliana
author_sort Vásquez Galán, Belem Iliana
title Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
title_short Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
title_full Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
title_fullStr Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
title_full_unstemmed Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
title_sort pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
description The global pandemic declared by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in 2020 caused a sharp fall in output production and changed consumption habits of the population. The goal of the article is to identify the impact of the pandemic on production and consumption in Mexico and the northern border, as well as to forecast its economic recovery. With national data, the percentage change of economic activities and household spending between 2018 and 2021 were compared and an ARIMA model was estimated to forecast economic activity at the state level. The results indicate that the pandemic caused increases in trade retail, health services, transportation and entertainment, while consumers prioritized the purchase of basic products and online shopping. The impact of the pandemic in Mexico was deep but brief, so a rapid economic recovery is forecasted up to 2025, except for the border states of Coahuila and Tamaulipas.
publisher Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas
publishDate 2022
url https://dycsvictoria.uat.edu.mx/index.php/dycsv/article/view/150
work_keys_str_mv AT vasquezgalanbelemiliana pandemiceconomicimpactandeconomicforecast
AT vasquezgalanbelemiliana lapandemiaimpactoeconomicoypronosticoderecuperacion
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