Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities

This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation, a stochastic method, to calculate the levelized costs of three electric power generation technologies: coal thermoelectric, combined cycle, and nuclear power plants. We found that hat the expected Generated Levelized Total Cost (cost of MegaWatt generated by h...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Gómez Rios, María del Carmen
Format:	Online
Language:	spa
Published:	ACACIA A.C. 2020
Online Access:	https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/229
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

id	oai:ojs2.cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx:article-229
record_format	ojs
spelling	oai:ojs2.cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx:article-2292020-02-09T20:54:50Z Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities Modelos estocásticos aplicados a la simulación de costos nivelados de centrales generadoras de electricidad de carga base considerando externalidades ambientales Gómez Rios, María del Carmen This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation, a stochastic method, to calculate the levelized costs of three electric power generation technologies: coal thermoelectric, combined cycle, and nuclear power plants. We found that hat the expected Generated Levelized Total Cost (cost of MegaWatt generated by hour), accounting for environmental externalities (CO2 emissions), is higher in coal thermoelectric plants ($80.40 dollars/MWh), followed by the combined cycle ($66.54 dollars/MWh) while nuclear power plants have the lowest cost ($ 62.0 dollars/MWh). The probability that the Total Levelized Cost of Generation with Externalities (CTNGE in Spanish) is in the range of $ 60 to $ 80 dollars/MWh is 44.2% for the coal-fired power plant, 99.1% for the combined cycle, and 60.6% for the nuclear power plant. Current results suggest that, as stochastic models incorporate historical and future information of the main input variables, constitute a tool that provides greater robustness than deterministic models. En este trabajo se aplica el método estocástico a través de la simulación Monte Carlo a los costos nivelados de tres tecnologías de generación de energía eléctrica: termoeléctricas de carbón, ciclo combinado y centrales nucleares. Se encuentra evidencia, mediante la simulación Monte Carlo de que el Costo Total Nivelado de Generación esperado, por MegaWatt hora generado (MWh), considerando externalidades ambientales (emisiones de CO2), es mayor en las termoeléctricas de carbón ($80.40 dólares/MWh), seguido del ciclo combinado ($66.54 dólares/MWh) y las centrales nucleares presentan el menor costo ($62.0 dólares/MWh). La probabilidad de que el Costo Total Nivelado de Generación con Externalidades (CTNGE) se encuentre en el intervalo de $60 a $80 dólares/MWh es de 44.2% en la termoeléctrica de carbón, 99.1% en el ciclo combinado y 60.6% en la central nuclear. Los resultados encontrados señalan a los modelos estocásticos como una herramienta que proporciona mayor robustez, en relación a los modelos determinísticos, debido a que se incorpora información histórica y futura de las principales variables de entrada. ACACIA A.C. 2020-02-02 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo revisado por pares application/pdf text/html https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/229 Ciencias Administrativas. Teoría y Praxis; Vol 15 No 2 (2019): JULY - DECEMBER; 11 - 27 Ciencias Administrativas. Teoría y Praxis; Vol. 15 Núm. 2 (2019): JULIO - DICIEMBRE; 11 - 27 2683-1465 2683-1457 spa https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/229/254 https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/229/255 Derechos de autor 2019 Ciencias Administrativas. Teoría y Praxis
institution	CIENCIAS ADMINISTRATIVAS
collection	OJS
language	spa
format	Online
author	Gómez Rios, María del Carmen
spellingShingle	Gómez Rios, María del Carmen Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities
author_facet	Gómez Rios, María del Carmen
author_sort	Gómez Rios, María del Carmen
title	Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities
title_short	Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities
title_full	Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities
title_fullStr	Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities
title_full_unstemmed	Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities
title_sort	stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities
description	This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation, a stochastic method, to calculate the levelized costs of three electric power generation technologies: coal thermoelectric, combined cycle, and nuclear power plants. We found that hat the expected Generated Levelized Total Cost (cost of MegaWatt generated by hour), accounting for environmental externalities (CO2 emissions), is higher in coal thermoelectric plants ($80.40 dollars/MWh), followed by the combined cycle ($66.54 dollars/MWh) while nuclear power plants have the lowest cost ($ 62.0 dollars/MWh). The probability that the Total Levelized Cost of Generation with Externalities (CTNGE in Spanish) is in the range of $ 60 to $ 80 dollars/MWh is 44.2% for the coal-fired power plant, 99.1% for the combined cycle, and 60.6% for the nuclear power plant. Current results suggest that, as stochastic models incorporate historical and future information of the main input variables, constitute a tool that provides greater robustness than deterministic models.
publisher	ACACIA A.C.
publishDate	2020
url	https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/229
work_keys_str_mv	AT gomezriosmariadelcarmen stochasticmodelsappliedtothesimulationoflevelizedcostsofbaseloadpowergenerationplantsaccountingforenvironmentalexternalities AT gomezriosmariadelcarmen modelosestocasticosaplicadosalasimulaciondecostosniveladosdecentralesgeneradorasdeelectricidaddecargabaseconsiderandoexternalidadesambientales
_version_	1712116179126976512

Stochastic models applied to the simulation of levelized costs of baseload power generation plants accounting for environmental externalities

Similar Items