Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico

Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico

The economic sphere represented mostly by companies is the one that suffered the most from the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, based on the Consumer price index (CPI) from 2010 to March 2021, a forecast is made incorporating stationarity by month, with the aim of comparing the...

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Main Authors: Andrade Rosas, Luis Antonio, Flegl, Martin
Format: Online
Language:spa
Published: ACACIA A.C. 2022
Online Access:https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/286
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spelling oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article-2862022-02-24T21:26:27Z Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico ¿En realidad es problema de la COVID-19 el desajuste de la curva de Phillips? Un análisis económico sobre las expectativas de ofertores y consumidores para 2021 en México Andrade Rosas, Luis Antonio Flegl, Martin COVID-19 Desempleo Índice de precios al consumidor Inflación Expectativas COVID-19 Unemployment Econometrics Consumer's price index Inflation The economic sphere represented mostly by companies is the one that suffered the most from the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, based on the Consumer price index (CPI) from 2010 to March 2021, a forecast is made incorporating stationarity by month, with the aim of comparing the CPI forecasts during the pandemic with the real values in the pandemic. The analysis shows that companies did not incorporate the effects of the pandemic into their forecasts, which caused changes in their finances. Perhaps consumers could have won from this price change, but unemployment conditions prevented it. According to this suspicion, the analysis involves the relationship between unemployment and inflation via the Phillips curve, and from an econometric analysis a threshold of the unemployment rate is found, where the functional form of the Phillips curve is modified. In addition to the analysis, the value of the threshold stands out, which corresponds to the unemployment rate of 4.4% in the first quarter of 2021 El ámbito económico representado en su mayoría por las empresas es el que más sufrió los estragos derivados de la pandemia COVID-19. En este trabajo, a partir del Índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) del 2010 a marzo 2021, se hace un pronóstico incorporando la estacionariedad por mes, con el objetivo de comparar los pronósticos del IPC durante la pandemia respecto a los valores reales en la pandemia. El análisis muestra que las empresas no incorporaron los efectos de la pandemia dentro de sus pronósticos, lo que ocasionó alteraciones en sus finanzas. Quizá los consumidores podrían haber ganado por este cambio de precios, pero las condiciones de desempleo lo impidieron. De acuerdo a esta sospecha, el análisis involucra la relación entre desempleo e inflación vía la curva de Phillips, y a partir de un análisis econométrico se encuentra un umbral de la tasa de desempleo, en donde se modifica la forma funcional de la curva de Phillips. Adicional al análisis, se destaca el valor del umbral, que corresponde a la tasa de desempleo de 4.4 % del primer trimestre del 2021.  ACACIA A.C. 2022-02-24 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo revisado por pares application/pdf text/html https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/286 10.46443/catyp.v17i2.286 Ciencias Administrativas. Teoría y Praxis; Vol. 17 No. 2 (2021): JULIO - DICIEMBRE; 50 - 66 Ciencias Administrativas. Teoría y Praxis; Vol. 17 Núm. 2 (2021): JULIO - DICIEMBRE; 50 - 66 2683-1465 2683-1457 spa https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/286/320 https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/286/321 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
institution CIENCIAS ADMINISTRATIVAS
collection OJS
language spa
format Online
author Andrade Rosas, Luis Antonio
Flegl, Martin
spellingShingle Andrade Rosas, Luis Antonio
Flegl, Martin
Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico
author_facet Andrade Rosas, Luis Antonio
Flegl, Martin
author_sort Andrade Rosas, Luis Antonio
title Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico
title_short Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico
title_full Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico
title_fullStr Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico
title_full_unstemmed Is the misalignment of the Phillips curve really a COVID-19 problem? An economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in Mexico
title_sort is the misalignment of the phillips curve really a covid-19 problem? an economic analysis of the expectations of suppliers and consumers for 2021 in mexico
description The economic sphere represented mostly by companies is the one that suffered the most from the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, based on the Consumer price index (CPI) from 2010 to March 2021, a forecast is made incorporating stationarity by month, with the aim of comparing the CPI forecasts during the pandemic with the real values in the pandemic. The analysis shows that companies did not incorporate the effects of the pandemic into their forecasts, which caused changes in their finances. Perhaps consumers could have won from this price change, but unemployment conditions prevented it. According to this suspicion, the analysis involves the relationship between unemployment and inflation via the Phillips curve, and from an econometric analysis a threshold of the unemployment rate is found, where the functional form of the Phillips curve is modified. In addition to the analysis, the value of the threshold stands out, which corresponds to the unemployment rate of 4.4% in the first quarter of 2021
publisher ACACIA A.C.
publishDate 2022
url https://cienciasadmvastyp.uat.edu.mx/index.php/ACACIA/article/view/286
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